Work Package 4 : Development of evaluation tools for the future

In the event of road infrastructure planning or improvement projects, the road safety effects are generally estimated based on combinations of historic accident data, (before and after) observational studies, experience and/or expert judgement. However, managing road safety requires a more fundamental understanding of the variables that play a role in crash occurrence. Furthermore, the ability to estimate or predict the road safety performance of a specific road or even a network of roads given a certain set of design and operational criteria is becoming a real need among road authorities. This need cannot be totally met by traditional approaches. Besides approaches such as safe and credible speed limits and inventory based traffic and safety management schemes, Accident Prediction Models (APMs) also offer a solution to this problem. Based on the outcomes of WP3, existing and potentially new approaches will be assessed for applicability in the future safety management of European road infrastructure. To this end, pilot studies will be carried out in selected roads of the participant countries.
The focus of WP4 will be on a detailed study of the application of APMs as evaluation tools for road infrastructure safety management.

To ensure synergy at a European level, WP4 strives to bring together the collective research efforts in Europe. A methodology for the development of APMs will be formulated and documented. This methodology will make use of the strengths and the weaknesses of the available approaches adopted in building such models. The results of the work will be documented in separate country research reports which will be a primary input for the development of a subsequent guideline document (see Work Package 5).